New Crop Poll: 1-pt PQ Lead

Le Soleil has the best round-up of the latest CROP poll, taken between October 15 and October 25 and involving 1,000 Quebecers.

The Parti Quebecois is leading with 40%, followed closely by the Liberals at 39%. It is not often that the PQ is doing better than the BQ, which is actually a positive sign for the federal party. The ADQ follows with 8%, barely ahead of Quebec Solidaire and the Parti Vert with 6%.

The francophone vote leans heavily to the PQ, with 46%. The PLQ takes 33%. In Montreal, however, the Liberals have the lead, 45% to 35%. In Quebec City, the PQ is in front with 39%. The Liberals have 27% and the ADQ is competitive with 24%. In other words, virtually all of the province's ADQ support is in this region.

This poll would give the PQ 64 seats and a majority government. The PLQ would have 57 seats while the ADQ and QS would have two seats each.

Jean Charest is the favourite premier of 42%, with Pauline Marois having 33% support. Independence is at 35%, far below the combined score (46%) of the two sovereigntist parties.

My apologies for not updating the projection here. I'm a little confused as to what I should do with this wing of the site, since a Quebec provincial election is at least three years away.

Corrections to Leger Poll

Turns out the information I reported on for this poll was incorrect, and that the results were:

Liberals - 41%
Parti Québécois - 37%
Action Démocratique - 10%
Québec Solidaire - 6%
Parti Vert - 5%

As for independence, 41% are for, 46% against, and 13% are undecided. Distributing that number proportionately, we get 47% for and 53% against. That's a high number.

For francophones, after distributing the undecideds, we get 56% for and 44% against. For non-francophones, it's 15% for and 85% against.

New Léger Poll: 4% Liberal Lead

Le Devoir reported today on a new Léger Marketing poll, taken between August 31 and September 2 and involving 1,005 Quebecers. The result:

Liberals - 41%
Parti Québécois - 37%
Action Démocratique - 8%
Québec Solidaire - 5%

The francophone vote goes to the PQ - 45% to the Liberal 33%. As to who would make the best Premier, Jean Charest gets 32% support while Pauline Marois gets 25%. Amir Khadir of QS gets 7%.

The result of the Parti Vert was not mentioned in this article. I need to wait for the full details before adding it to the projection.

The seat totals from this poll would have been:

Liberals - 64
Parti Québécois - 57
Action Démocratique - 2
Québec Solidaire - 2

Projection Update: Liberal Majority

As you can see, I've updated the projection. The Liberals have picked up enough seats to form the slimmest of majorities. This current projection is almost exactly the same as last year's electoral result.